Why should we expect a Triple Crown this year? We have absolutely no incentive to. Super Saver ran one of the slowest Kentucky Derbies in the history of the race and wants us to believe that this colt can not only withstand the rigors of the Triple Crown, but rise above them? It is hard to imagine, especially after 31 years, but it is not impossible.
Super Saver has been a colt on the improve all year long. He ran two game efforts in defeat before having his breakout performance in the Kentucky Derby. Being fairly fresh, after only three starts this season Super Saver might just have the energy to get him through the the rigors of the Triple Crown. The fact that Calvin Borel also rode a conservative race, avoiding all the bumping and grinding, and saving ground with a rail trip will also go a long way in terms of how Super Saver will handle the three races in five weeks.
His chances at taking the second jewel of the Triple Crown are also high, as are his chances for another easy trip. Pimlico is a speed favoring track which fits Super Savers stalking style to a T. He is not a big lumbering colt which bodes well for his ability to handle the tighter turns of the Pimlico Racecourse. He has the explosiveness and the agility to open up on his opponents around the far turn, then staying power to hold them off in the stretch.
Pimlico, however, is not where people begin to doubt the colt, it is the Belmont, the test of the Champions. Super Saver must be trained to perfection. He cannot be too sharp, as we saw with Big Brown in 2008, and he cannot be over trained, Smarty Jones in 2004. Again, Super Saver has show that he has the exact style needed to win this race. Dunkirk nearly stole the race last year by going to the lead and slowing the pace. He finished second to Summer Bird.
I know there are plenty of reasons as to why Super Saver cannot win. I know many think he is too slow, based on his time. I know many, including myself, thought the best horses in the race didn't get to show their best due to horrible trips. I know he doesn't look like a 12 furlong horse, and a thousand other reasons Super Saver cannot possibly win the Triple Crown. But I also know a thousand others reasons why he can.