Thursday, January 28, 2010

Who Will be the Best in 2010?

Who will be the best three year old in 2010? That is a tough question to answer right now, seeing as how the potential of this crop is off the charts. You have those colts who have already established themselves as legitimate contenders, like the Champ Lookin at Lucky, who seems to just get better and better. Noble's Promise is another classy colt and so are Buddy's Saint, Jackson Bend, Winslow Homer, and Super Saver. You have horses that have so much potential talent, but haven't quite proven themselves, like the grand looking son of Tiznow, American Lion, and Tiznow's other flashy looking son Tiz Chrome, the speedy Eightyfiveinafifty, and the freight train Lecomte winner, Ron the Greek. With so many options and so much talent, how can you predict who will be the top 3yr old?

Well, I will try to narrow it down for you a bit. First I'll give you my favorite established colt, then the colt who I think has the talent and potential to make an impact, and then give you my final colt who is, as of now off the radar. For my first category I have so many to choose from, my two favorites being Lookin at Lucky and Buddy's Saint.

Lookin At Lucky has been the dominant force out in the west, chewing up his competition then spitting them out. Winner of five out of his six races, the Smart Strike colt demonstrated such ease, when coasting to the wire in his first four starts. In his fifth, his only loss, he seemed to gain stature instead of loosing it, after coming within a head of an unbeaten season after suffering a horrendous trip. Lookin At Lucky vindicated his loss with an easy win in the Cash Call Futurity. After all his stunning victories and his one loss where he was still brave, even in defeat, he was crowned the Juvenile Champion.

Buddy's Saint captured my horse, not by his talent, at first, but the heart wrenching story of his sire, Saint Liam. Winner of the Breeders Cup Classic, Saint Liam retired to stud duty. His future as a star sire was looking bright, until one morning he was injured playing in his paddock and was euthanized. Saint Liam only had the chance to sire one crop of foals, and from that crop is Buddy's Saint. The impressive looking colt has never had another horse cross the wire in front of him. His first win, he was disqualified, but in his next two starts the colt blew his competition away, winning with condescending ease.

Both colts hold such talent, such promise, alas, I can only choose one, and that one would be Lookin At Lucky. I know he has yet to run over conventional dirt, but his sire is know for siring all types of horses, two of which are successful over the main track. One would be the sensational sprinter Fabulous Strike and the other is the two time Horse of the Year, the mighty Curlin. I believe this colt will take very well to dirt, and with the addition of blinkers, to keep his mind on business, Lookin At Lucky could very well go on to win a second Eclipse Award.

For the colt I believe has the most potential, but has yet to prove themselves against top quality colts, I will choose American Lion. No, his last win was not all to impressive at first glance, especially when you notice Get My Fix closing fast on the outside. Another look will show you that the grand looking so of Tiznow was merely galloping after he made the lead. If you'll look close to the wire you see American Lion has his ears forward, indicating that he was going easily. A little more experience and focus and this colt will definitely be making some noise this year.

Lastly, my off the radar pick. The horse who gets this position was once considered a top pick for almost anyone's early Derby list. But when threw in two big flops in the Champagne and Iroquois Stakes he immediately dropped off the radar. Dublin, the massive son of Afleet Alex flashed his brilliance with a decisive maiden win and a victory in the Hopeful Stakes, where he beat Backtalk. After his two puzzling losses he was found to have an entrapped epiglottis. Since then he has had surgery to repair the problem and has been working like a maniac at Oaklawn. One win could restore his tarnished image, and I, for one, believe we'll be seeing the old Dublin again.

So there you have it, three of the top juveniles I believe can easily rise to the top of the division. What is your take on all of this? Do you have any favorites?


  1. Blind Luck is impressive. My next Who will be the best in 2010 will be on 3yr old fillies and she will certainly be mentioned.

  2. he really good and the surgery will bring him back to top quality, or is he one of those horses who moves way up at Saratoga? We shall soon see.

  3. I've been following Lookin at Lucky since his maiden, he's definitely my favorite. He's big and good-looking, and definitely has talent. I do hope he goes east though, and gets some dirt foundation.

    As for Blind Luck, if she can run on dirt the way she runs on synthetic, I have a feeling we'll be seeing a lot of her. She may be even better then some of these colts, her HS win was 2 seconds faster then LL's. Time will tell.

  4. LAL and BL are both fantastic. A couple of reasons that the HS time was so much faster can be explained by the slow fractions in LAL race. Another factor is, unlike BL, when he made the lead he shut down and coasted to the wire. The way a race is run makes all the difference in the world with times sometimes.

    On Dublin, I thought the same thing at first, and still have my reservations. However, I kept asking myself why would Luckas be so high on a horse he knows may be only a one track horse? Oaklawn will tell us a lot about his this colt, and I hoping that his surgery puts him back on track.