Friday, February 12, 2010

There Once was a Fox, Is a Lion Next?

As you all know the east coast got absolutely hammered with snow last weekend and later in the week. Because of this many people, including myself, ended up being snowed in, which means I had nothing to do but sit at the computer and research random horse racing facts on the Internet. Well while I was researching some of my random horse racing facts, I stumbled onto some very interesting facts that led me to believe that this year we will have a Triple Crown winner and the two best candidates are American Lion and Interactif.

Yes, I know how bazaar I sound, yammering about having a Triple Crown winner when we have spent over three decades trying to find one. Well, believe it or not, I actually have some very neat and valid facts to back up my crazy claim.

First why don't I start off by showing you the importance of the human side in a potential Triple Crown winner. Trainer wise, the trainer must have very little to no experience in winning any jewel of the Triple Crown, which is why Eoin Harty and Todd Pletcher are prime candidates. Harty has no Triple Crown wins, even though he has sent out Colonel John and his sibling Mr. Hot Stuff in the 07 Derby and 08 Derby and Belmont. Pletcher has been trying for years to burst onto the Triple Crown scene, and he did manage to once in the 07 Belmont with his star filly Rags to Riches. When looking at the owners, more often then not, and to be more exact, 9 out of 11 Triple Crown winners were bred and owned by the same people. American Lion was bred by WinStar Farms and is owned by WinStar Farms and Interactif was bred by Wertheimer and Frere and is currently owned by Wertheimer and Frere.

Now here is where things get a little crazy, because now we are dealing with colors and names. The way I was able to narrow things down with when looking for equine trends was color. While looking at the list of Triple Crown winners I saw that there was a rotation based on color. The pattern is fairly simple, since all it only includes two colors, chestnut and bay/brown. If you look at the list of Triple Crown winners you will see that the pattern is chestnut, bay, chestnut, bay all the way down to Affirmed, a chestnut. According to the pattern our next Triple Crown winner will be a bay or a brown horse. So far, as you can see both Interactif and American Lion fit the criteria of Triple crown winner.

Name wise is where things go a little off for both the colts, since based on this area both are different in how they fit into being a Triple Crown winner. Interactif fits the bill because his sire's name Broken Vow, starts with a B. Five of the 11 Triple Crown winners also had sires whose names began with a B, and three out of the five sires' names had the first part of their name as Bold. Now, American Lion clearly does not fit that criteria, but how his name, like many of the Triple Crown winners, is a very interesting, powerful, and regal name. Another little tid bit I looked up was that after Sir Barton, the first Triple Crown winner, it was another 11 years until the next Triple Crown winner, Gallant Fox, won the Triple Crown. Now you may or may not see it right away, but the similarity between the two is both of their names end with an animal. Also, if you look a little deeper, you will see that the 11 year wait was the first time it took over a decade to find a Triple Crown winner. Here we are, in yet again another drought, and along comes this strapping bay, the color Gallant Fox was, whose name also ends with an animal.

Now I realize how weird all this sounds but all these facts and similarities that line up for these two colts is unbelievable. Personally, of the two I like American Lion's chances of winning the Crown the best. He has the look of the Triple Crown winner, he was one of the top two year olds, like most of the Triple Crown winners, and so many historical facts are falling into place with this colt it's hard not to wonder, "could he be it?" I think he can be, and hopefully I'm right.


  1. I'd take American Lion over Interactif as well. He looks so powerful when he runs, I love his bearing. He's not in my top five yet though, I expect he'll win the Lewis this weekend. It should be interesting to see what happens.

  2. This is a very interesting way of looking at picking a Triple Crown winner...I appreciate the research you put in. I can't say this is how I will select my choices for the Derby/Preakness/Belmont, but hey maybe you will hit on never know!

  3. Hey guys,

    Brian, in my years of watching the Derby, this is not normally how I make my selections either. As I said though, being snowed in kinda leaves nothing for me but computer times, which means horses, horses, horses, and well...more horses. Hopefully I am onto something, and if I'm right, I don't know whether I'll brag all over the internet or just be to flat out shocked to say a word.


    Interactif has got those B's in the pedigree going on, and when I realized who I was looking at, I was like, really? It is actually kind of ironic to me that both horses are not know for their dirt experience, but neither was Barbaro, Big Brown, or Mine That Bird. American Lion is my bet though, even before all this research I had a gut feeling about him after watching his Prevue. He just won it so easily.