D'Funnybone: Looks can be Deceiving

So, who wasn't impressed when they saw D'Funnybone spurt away from the Saratoga Special field Friday? I will admit, by first impression, it was a dominating and impressive victory, and who wouldn't think so, after witnessing this colt demolish the field by 10 1/2 lengths? Though if have learned one thing in this game first impressions aren't everything, just look at what happened to ,speed demon, Dashing Debby, just the day before. After watching D'Funnybone i then looked at the splits and final time he posted, and was not impressed. D'Funnybone's final time was 1.17.58, when Worstcasesenario, just a day before had run a 1.16.72. The splits in WCS race were, also faster as well, but when calculating the difference in the times and WCS crosses the line .86 of a second ahead of D'Funnybone. To be exact that is over four lengths, which was how far the second place horse was behind her that day.
Now lets take a look at his splits, which were 21.42, 44.67, and 1.10.63. These horses took almost 26 seconds, 25.96, to be exact, to go from the half to the 3/4's. Basically, after a fast opening quarter they started to back peddle badly. D'Funnybone took 6.95 seconds to complete his last half furlong, giving him a grand total of 32.91 seconds to complete his final 2.5 furlongs. That is not by any means fast. To put this in perspective he ran 13.2 seconds, when rounded, per furlong. WCS was closer to the pace, had the faster half and 3/4's to run on, and still her final 2.5 furlongs, though not by much is ahead of his, she ran 32.7, which is one length faster. The way I see this is that she had much more reason to back peddle than any of his group did, yet she still finished in a faster time.
Another thing I looked at was D'Funnybone vs Backtalk. Backtalk has yet to run 6.5 furlongs, but he has run flat. Last out he ran against, in my opinion a tougher field and ran a time of 1.10.07 for six furlongs. He ran his last quarter of a mile in 25.11, which was faster than either WCS, or D'Funnybone. His six furlong time, compared to either of the other two, was also faster. Backtalk is so far unbeaten in three starts, and from what we've seen he doesn't mind getting into a dog fight. His times suggest that he is just as good or better that these two horses, though his wins have not been as flashy. Backtalk also runs like he wants more distance, and with Affimered on his dam's side, and Smarty Jones as a father he might just be able to stretch out to the classic distances.
As we can see, though some horses may win by wide open margins, a flashy win is not everything. You must consider the splits, speed figures, and final times to get the idea of how good that horse is and what that horse has faced. This is why, to me, in the long haul, Backtalk will be the one we will see on the Triple Crown trail. I am not saying anything bad about the other two, only that as distance grows they may falter. They may make good mid distance horses, or sprinters. Backtalk, though seems to have the most potential to make an impact as a three year old next year. Now, lets see if I'm write.